politicalbetting.com

Iraq continues to depress Labour seat prices In spite of the strong ICM poll showing for Labour this morning the main attention of elections gamblers has been the impact on the outcome of today’s formal disclosure of the Attorney-General’s advice on the legality of the Iraq War. As reported last night IG Index marked Labour down sharply following last night’s leaks. This did not prompt an immediate response elsewhere and it has only been late this afternoon that all the…

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Start collecting your winnings on Blair’s 2005 election victory In a remarkable move this afternoon the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power have announced that the election is over and will pay out from today on all bets on Labour placed before Thursday 28th April. They say they are doing this because of “Labour’s increasing lead in the opinion polls” and hardly anybody is betting on anything other than a Labour victory in this market. The price on Tony Blair’s party has…

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A week to go and tempers are getting a bit frayed. Can we tone things down a bit? There are plenty of other sites to go to abuse supporters of other parties. Many thanks. Mike Smithson

Are Kennedy’s supporters reluctant to admit it? For several years ICM has been adjusting its published polling figures to deal with voters who are deemed “too shy” to admit their allegiance in a polling interview. This was introduced, initally, to deal with Conservative supporters who, it was thought, were reluctant to say so and, as a result, were distorting poll figures. Over the past year or so the formula that ICM and Populus use, based on taking a proportion of…

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Markets shaken by Channel 4’s publication of Iraq war advice Sharp price moves this evening on one of the main spread markets have seen a two seat drop in Labour’s predicted majority. With only IG Index having reacted so far the latest BALANCE OF MONEY prediction shows Labour down to 78 seats. If the other bookies follow IG then this will drop to 74 seats. This is the first downward shift in Labour’s position since the opening of the campaign….

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Politicalbetting’s Icarus finds out about the disputed votes When the Birmingham vote fraud case broke on the day that but for the Pope’s death Tony Blair would have called the General Election the view of many on the site was that it would have little impact beyond the city itself. But with the Times and other parts of the media continuing to focus on the new postal voting arrangements it is clear that this will not go away. Meanwhile, Richard…

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With the Tories now down to 190-195 region on the main spread markets of Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index there have been one or two signs that market sentiment has changed. Sporting Index reported a £3,000 a seat buy bet on Michael Howard’s party and IG yesterday told me that a senior figure in the party had bought at the £1,000 level on the market we have been tipping – the number of seat changing hands outside Scotland. This…

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Labour price tightens to 1/25