Markets shaken by Channel 4’s publication of Iraq war advice

Sharp price moves this evening on one of the main spread markets have seen a two seat drop in Labour’s predicted majority. With only IG Index having reacted so far the latest BALANCE OF MONEY prediction shows Labour down to 78 seats. If the other bookies follow IG then this will drop to 74 seats. This is the first downward shift in Labour’s position since the opening of the campaign.

On the vote share markets there has been little movement with LAB 37.6 (-0.3) CON 33.7 +0.1): LD 21.6 (nc). Note that these are all UK figures. To convert the pollsters GB only poll shares multiply by 0.97.

OUR SEATS CHANGING HAND TIP GOES INTO PROFIT. Less than a week ago we said BUY the number of seats changing hands at the then spread of 42-47. This evening the price was 50-55 so those who followed our advice could close their bet down now and take a substantial profit.

IG Index has promised a statement tomorrow about how they will handle the settlement of elecrtion bets should there be a lot of appeals because of the massive increase in postal voting. We hope the other bookmakes will follow suit

NOTE: The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

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Mike Smithson