Gamblers put Labour 4% ahead

UK vote shares: LAB 37.4 (+0.5 ): CON 33.4 (-0.4) : LD 21.5 (nc )

Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (nc)

Labour’s margin in our BALANCE OF MONEY prediction has risen to 4% – the biggest gap since we started doing the calculation in the first week of the campaign. This is an all-UK figure and is lower than the GB-only figures produced by the opinion polls.

The last week has seen a big move in market sentiment towards Tony Blair’s party which has obviously been driven by the polls.

The big gamble on May 5th will be whether the pollsters have broken their long-standing habit of always over-stating Labour.

We wonder whether Nick Sparrow of ICM, Andrew Cooper of Populus and Peter Kellner of YouGov will be backing up their figures with spread bets if the price ranges are at variance with their figures.

NOTE: The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index.

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

Mike Smithson