Will this be the scene outside Labour HQ two weeks today?

If our balance of money predictions are anything to go by then political gamblers believe that Tony Blair is heading for a return to Downing Street with a substantial majority even though Labour will poll less than 37% of the national vote.

Projected UK vote shares: LAB 36.9 (nc): CON 33.7 (-0.2) : LD 21.5 (-0.1))

Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 76 seats (nc)

With the polls stabilising the betting has remained fairly static as the big punters wait for the weekend’s development before deciding which way to go. The only big bet reported today was a £1,000 sell on the number of Lib Dems seats which has caused the spread to drop.

My bet of the day Buying at 47 on IG’s number of seats that will change hands outside Scotland on May 5th. This would include 2-4 seats that look likely in Northern Ireland; some switching between the Tories and Lib Dems either way; PC progress in Wales; the LDs being successful in some of their Labour targets as well as Conservative gains from Labour as a result of the national swing. You would also be covered if there was a Tory melt-down.

With all spread-betting you have to consider the down-side risk and here we think that it is relatively low. With both main parties polling in the 30s and the LDs in the low 20s there is the scope for a lot of fluidity.

NOTE: The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

Mike Smithson