The money is still going on Labour

Projected vote shares: LAB 37.2 (+0.7): CON 34.2 (-0.3) : LS 21.4 (+0.1)

Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 72 seats (nc)

As the avalanche of polls continues there’s been a huge amount of betting activity during the day but our BALANCE OF MONEY predictions have not moved very much. On the vote shares Labour now has a 3% lead. As we state every day the bookmakers are operating all UK figures while the polling firms exclude Northern Ireland. Last time Labour’s GB total was 1.3% ahead, the Tory party was 1% and the LDs were half a per cent greater than the all-UK totals. So a Labour total of 38.5% is what punters think is going to happen.

Given the record is that all polls all the time always overstate Labour then we might be reaching the point where a sell bet become attractive.

IG has just taken a £1,000 a seat sell bet on Labour at 357 seats. So if ICM is right and Tony Blair’s party gets 400 seats then he, and we assume that almost all political gamblers are male, will be down £43,000.

The regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index.

More seat markets come on stream. Visitors who use Internet Explorer should be seeing our new live odds tracker in the top right hand corner or the live feed from IG on the latest spread prices. Keep on refreshing the page to switch from one to the other. For other browsers only the spread price shows.

Bet of the Day The most popular seat market is Bethnal Green and Bow where George Galloway is trying to mount his return to Wetminster. Labour remain firm favourites.

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here

Mike Smithson