YouGov adds to Tory market depression

Projected vote shares: LAB 36.25: CON 34.75: LS 20.75

Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 68 seats (+4)

The two pollsters punters seem to take most notice of are ICM and YouGov so the fact that both have reported similar big leads for Labour has caused the markets to react strongly and the projected Labour majority has gone up a further four seats for the second day running.

On the projected poll share market the move to Labour has not been as strong and it should be noted here that the bookmaker uses all UK vote shares compared with the pollsters who operate on a GB basis. Last time Labour’s GB total was 1.3% ahead, the Tory party was 1% and the LDs were half a per cent greater.

Our regular BALANCE OF MONEY predictions are based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index. We take the mid-points in the commons seats and vote share markets and produce an average in order to make the predictions which are entirely money driven.

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Mike Smithson