Today’s BALANCE OF MONEY vote share and seat predictions

Today’s BALANCE OF MONEY vote share and seat predictions

    ICM’s 6% lead pushes the markets further to Labour
  • Projected vote shares: LAB 36.75: CON 35.25: LS 20.75
  • Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 64 seats (+4)

    • We have now included a vote-share projection to our regular BALANCE OF MONEY prediction based on how spread betting gamblers are investing their money on all the main UK markets from Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index. We take the mid-points in the commons seats and vote share markets and produce an average in order to make the predictions which are entirely money driven. Currently only IG have a vote share market but others will be factored in when they follow suit.

    The sharp move today is almost entirely due to the ICM poll. This pollster and YouGov are the most price sensitive of the firms. YouGov are due to have a new poll out tomorrow.

    Today’s report is truncated because we are moving house. A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here.

    Mike Smithson

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