Tony Blair’s NOP lead doubles in a week

A new NOP poll in the Independent with changes from the same pollster last week has LAB 38 (+2): CON 32(-1): LD 21(nc) and if repeated on a uniform basis nationally on May 5 would give Labour 391 seats, the Conservatives 171 and the Lib Dems 55.

What’s encouraging for Labour is that 67 per cent of their supporters said they were “certain to vote” – up three points on last week.

The trend is in line with other recent telephone surveys which are all showing a big move to Tony Blair’s party over last week. The interviewing took place between Friday and Sunday, before the campaign proper got underway.

Generally NOP polls have less impact on the betting markets than ICM or YouGov.

NOP FORM NOTE: During the 2001 General Election campaign NOP carried out five surveys overstating Labour’s eventual margin by 8-12%.

A round-up of General Election Betting is available here. We will be reporting on the spread prices in our Campaign Countdown later in the day.

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Mike Smithson