POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY” prediction: Labour majority 54

In order to make the Balance of Money Predictor even more representative we are, from today adding the spread prices from two other bookmakers into the equation. So as well as Spreadfair, IG Index we will now include Sporting Index and Tradesports.

This morning’s polls have, as we predicted, caused the Labour spreads to move up a notch and the average mid-point of the four markets that are now included is 349.63 seats – making the prediction a Labour majority of 52 seats .

We call this the “Balance of Money” prediction because it reflects the collective view of gamblers prepared to risk money in all four markets on what the outcome will be.

Opinion Polls: Now that Mori is carrying out some of its polls by telephone we are abandoning our attempt to distinguish between the telephone and the non-telephone pollsters. Only the internet firm, YouGov, offers an alternative to telephone polling.

Betting Odds Main features today:-

Robert Kilroy-Silk’s price to become an MP moves from 7/2 to 6/1

Labour now 1/12 on who wins most seats

Lib Dems now 15/8 to get 71+ seats

Michael Howard’s majority in Folkstone decreasing 6/4

Commons Seat spread-betting prices

IG Index – LAB 348-353: CON 201-206: LD 64-67: SNP 5.2-5.7: PC 4.5-5: DUP 7.7-8.2: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 2.8 – 3.3: SDLP 1.8 -2.3: RES 0.3- 0.8: UKIP 0-0.3
Spreadfair – LAB 350-351: CON 204.5–204.6: LD 65.3 –65.6: SNP 5.4 –5.7: PC 4.3 – 4.6: UKIP 0.1 – 0.3

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here.

Mike Smithson