POLITICALBETTING “BALANCE OF MONEY” prediction: Labour majority 52 (+1)

Today’s YouGov poll was the first from any pollster for a fortnight showing an improvement in Labour fortunes – albeit by just one point – and this has taken some of the steam away from the move to the Tories on the spread betting Commons seats markets that have characterised the opening week of the campaign.

The price moves on the spread-betting markets are just enough to produce the change in the “Balance of Money” prediction which now stands at Labour majority of 52 seats . This is calculated by taking price data from the two spread-betting markets we feature and calculating the average mid-point price for the number of Labour seats. Because this is driven by what gamblers are betting on it is a fairly accurate reflection of where the money is going.

The Independent on Sunday political commentator, John Rentoul, posted a comment here that yesterday’s prediction of a 51 seat majority was impossible – majorities are always even numbers. A fair point but yesterday’s computation was precisely half-way. If this happens again we will round up.

Opinion Polls: The main polls have been You Gov and the Mori survey from Scotland showing a decline for the SNP and the Tories moving into second place in a part of the UK that has been almost a “no-go” area for the party since the Thatcher era. The YouGov poll changes our polling averages which are split between the telephone surveys and that that use other methods to assess opinion.

Phone pollsters: LAB 37.5: CON 34: LD 19.25 Labour lead 3.5%
Other pollsters: LAB 35: CON 36.5: LD 21 Conservative lead 2%

Betting Odds Main features today:-

George Galloway 5/2 against winning for Respect in new market

Robert Kilroy-Silk 7/2 to be elected an MP

David Blunkett 6/5 to return to the Cabinet after election

Labour now 1/14 on who wins most seats

Higher turnout prices continue to tighten

Lib Dem seats prices are continuing to move out

Commons Seat spread-betting prices

IG Index – LAB 346-351: CON 203-208: LD 64-67: SNP 5.5-6: PC 4.5-5: DUP 7.7-8.2: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 2.8 – 3.3: SDLP 1.8 -2.3: RES 0.3- 0.8: UKIP 0-0.3
Spreadfair – LAB 348.5 – 349.5: CON 205–206.8: LD 65.3 –65.6: SNP 5.4 –5.7: PC 4.5 – 4.6: UKIP 0.1 – 0.3
Predicted turnout percentage:- IG Index 59-60.5% while Spreadfair have 60.1 -60.7%

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here.

Mike Smithson