Another poll boost for the Tories

A new poll by YouGov for Sky News taken since the election was declared has the two parties neck and neck and reflects the moves shown in the batch of polls publised yesterday. The headlne figures are with changes on the last YouGov poll – LAB 36 (+1): CON 36 (+2): LD 21 (-1)

On turnout the survey found 65% saying they were definitely planning to vote with Tory supporters more likely to say they were certain than Labour ones. YouGov does not usually weight by people’s answer to this question and we assume that the headline figures include all those with a voting intention.

This poll is the first by the intenet pollster since last August which has not has a Labour lead and will be encouraging for the Tory team. It also reinforces that the Howard Flight sacking does not appear to have had the negative impact that was being forecast by many both within and outside the Tory party.

Although Labour will be disappointed not to still be in the lead the electoral arithmatic means that these figures would still give Tony Blair a working majority if they were repeated on a uniform national swing on election day. The Tories need to be 3-4% ahead on votes just to be equal on seats and maybe 10% ahead to be certain of forming a government.

Although the Lib Dem share is down a notch the party is still starting the election in a very good position.

Mike Smithson