Great value in a new spread market on vote shares

IG Index have now opened a market on the share of the popular vote the three main parties will get and there’s great value on the Lib Dems.

The opening prices are Lab 36 – 37: Con 35 – 36: Lib Dem 19.5 – 20.5. So the buy price on Charles Kennedy’s party is only 1.7 points up on what they achieved four years ago in spite of the fact that they’ve been polling at much higher levels. The price level is also much lower than the 23.9% that’s available on the Spreadfair exchange.

Today’s YouGov poll gives them a 21% so if that’s how it finishes up you are already a winner. But all the signs are that Lib Dem support picks up during campaigns as they get more exposure because of the broadcasting fair access rules.

Only one of all the polls from all the pollsters last time you ever recorded them at higher than the 18.8 they got – and that was one survey from ICM that had them at 19%.

Bet now before IG realise they have priced this too low.

Personal note. This is one bet I am going for – it’s the best value General Election spread bet about.

Mike Smithson