Politicalbetting “Balance of Money” prediction: Labour majority 52 (-2)

Sentiment on the betting markets, reinforced by this morning’s YouGov poll, continues to move away from Labour and there’s a change in our “Balance of Money” election prediction. From the average mid-point Labour price from the two spread markets that we feature we are projecting a General Election result based entirely on how political gamblers are risking their money. Yesterday it was at 54 seats – today’s calculation is for a Labour majority of 52 seats.

Opinion Polls: The main polling news has been the Sky-YouGov survey which has the two main parties level-pegging on 36% each with the Lib Dems on 21%. We have yet to see the detailed figures but it’s is clear that support for UKIP must have declined to 1% or even less. YouGov has traditionally been the pollster which has had the highest shares for the anti-EU party. The new poll means changes to our polling averages splt between the non-phone pollsters like YouGov and those that carry out phone surveys.

Phone pollsters: LAB 37.5: CON 34: LD 19.25 Labour lead 3.5%
Other pollsters: LAB 35 CON 37.: LD 21 Conservative lead 2.5%

Betting Odds The spread markets have seen further pressure on the Labour prices as punters sense value in backing against them. There are very few Labour buyer about at current price levels and a number are trying to cover their positions. It has been the same on the conventional market on the Party wining most seats:- LAB 1/12 or 13/100: CON 15/2, 7.4/1: LD 100/1, 189/1. Betting Exchange prices are shown in italics.

Commons Seat spread-betting prices

IG Index – LAB 346-351: CON 202-207: LD 65-68: SNP 5.5-6: PC 4.5-5: RES 0.5-1: UKIP 0-0.5: DUP 7.5-8: SF 4.3-4.8: UUP 3 – 3.5: SDLP 1.8 -2.3
Spreadfair – LAB 347.5 – 350: CON 202.5 –206: LD 65.1 –67.5: SNP 5.5 –5.7: PC 4.5 – 4.6: UKIP 0.1 – 0.3
Predicted turnout percentage:- IG Index 58.5-60% while Spreadfair have 59.4 -60.8%

A full round-up of all General Election Betting is available here.

Mike Smithson