Labour lose out to the Lib Dems

This month’s MORI’s puts the two main parties next and neck and reports a big boost for the Liberal Democrats, at the expense of Labour. The figures – which are based on those certain to vote – are CON 37(nc): LAB 37 (-2): LD 20% (+2).

This is the first time for six months that the Tories have not been behind Labour in a survey from one of the main polling organisations and are in sharp contrast to the March ICM poll published on Tuesday that had Labour up and the Tories down. As it is this poll has the Tories constant but the change has been as a result of Labour losing support to the Lib Dems.

MORI also report a large rise in satisfaction ratings for Michael Howard – the percentage of people satisfied with Howard’s performance rose by 6 points since last month to 31%, his highest rating for a year. Howard’s net rating, taking into account those who are dissatisfied, is -10 compared with -25 for the Prime Minister.

Unlike ICM, Populus, Communicate Research and NOP, MORI still uses traditional face to face interviews and for their headline figures only include those who are 100% certain to vote. The phone pollsters weight the responses of those less than 100%.

The spread markets have responded with moves away from Labour.

IG Index – LAB 351-356 (-2): CON 199-204 (+2): LD 66-69 (nc)

Spreadfair – LAB 349.5 -353: CON 200-204.9: LD 65 -69

IG’s “size of majority” market is now showing 58-64 seats .

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Mike Smithson