But what will be the turnout?

An ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow shows that Labour’s support among Britain’s minority ethnic voters has fallen sharply since the last general election. Even so the party still enjoys a commanding lead with these sections of the electorate

The poll shares from the survey were: LAB 58: LD 23: CON 14

The Labour figure is significantly lower than the 75% who backed Tony Blair’s party in the 2001 general election. There’s no reason suggested for the fall although the Iraq war could have had an impact. The healthy position of the Lib Dems is perhaps a reflection of their position on the war.

Another issue is that turnout among minority ethnic voters could be around 11 points lower than other voters, with only 39% saying they were “10 out of 10” certain to vote, compared with 50% of the electorate as a whole.

A detailed breakdown of the spectrum of minority ethnic groups showed that 74% of black people and 61% of Indian people intend to vote Labour. But among those of mixed race background the figure is only 42%.

ICM Research interviewed a sample of 501 black and minority ethnic respondents by telephone between February 24 and March 7.

The main ICM survey for March is expected on Tuesday or Wednesday. In February ICM showed a reduction in the Labour lead to 3%.