Betfair odds against the Tories winning most seats

How the Tory price tightened

The above chart shows how punters on the £1m Betfair “who will win most seats” markets have reacted to the events of the past two weeks when the Tory immigration plans started to have an impact at the polls only to be followed by the Margaret Dixon affair.

The price reached an all-time peak of more than 10/1 two weeks ago last Monday only to move to 7.4/1 this afternoon – a tightening of nearly a quarter.

Betfair’s main election market is a good indicator of betting opinion because it has so much liquidity.

Even though the price has moved the overwhelming view of the market is that Labour are still a near certainty to win most seats – it is just that an element of doubt has started to creep in and punters are covering their positions.

All eyes are now on the March Populus Poll which is expected to be published tomorrow and will be the first full national survey since the Dixon affair.

Full General Election odds round-up

© Mike Smithson 2005