Both the Tories and Labour advance
Communicate Research’s monthly poll for tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday shows only minor changes from last month for the two main parties. The headline figures are LAB 41%(+1):CON 34%(+2): LD 17%(-3)

This equals the lowest poll figure for more than a year for Charles Kennedy’s party and reflects that all the recent campaign skirmishes have been between the two main parties.

CR do not prompt for party choice and do not weight on previous vote recall – both factors that hinder the LDs.

When the LDs advance, as they always do, during the campaign it is likely to be at the expense of Labour. The aggregate share for the two parties has been almost constant in all polls at 58-60%. When the LDs fall Labour rise and vice versa.

So when the LDs come back into the spotlight in the campaign then 5-6% might toggle.

Given the way CR do their polls these are good numbers for Michael Howard. Like other recent surveys UKIP seem to be hardly there.

NOTE I am on holiday until a week on Monday which means there will be a limited service on the site.
Mike Smithson