How much is immigration helping the Tories?

A new YouGov poll revealed today on the pollster’s website shows a one per cent boost for the Lib Dems at the expense of the Tories compared with the survey that was published in the Daily Telegraph on Friday. The figures are: LAB 35 (nc): CON 33 (-1): LD 23 (+1)..

These are small changes which could, as YouGov boss Peter Kellner writes in an article, be put down to sampling error. In his commentry on the electoral impact of the Tory immigration statement Kellner observes:-

In a survey for the Sunday Times, immediately before Mr Howard announced his new approach, put the Tories on 31%. Their rating rose three points to 34% in a YouGov survey conducted between Tuesday and Thursday, and 33% in a survey conducted between Wednesday and Friday. More of the respondents to the second survey than the first survey would have heard the rebuttal, from Labour and the Liberal Democrats, to the Conservative policy; this may explain the slight drop in Tory support towards the end of the week. Alternatively, the difference may be due to nothing more than sampling fluctuation. What is certain is that Mr Howard struck far more of a public nerve by talking about immigration than he did a week earlier by talking about tax, waste and public spending, which did nothing at all to make his party more popular.

…Perhaps most encouragingly for the Conservative leader, 27% say they are more likely to vote Tory as a result of its new focus on immigration. Only 7% say the new policy makes them less likely to vote Tory. With more likely / less likely questions, it is rare for as many as 27% to say that their vote is likely to be affected by any one issue. However, a large proportion of people who say there are more likely to vote Tory are already inclined to vote for the party. By stressing immigration, Mr Howard seems more likely to shore up his existing support than to win large numbers of converts.

Meanwhile on the betting markets there has been very little activity and prices stay unchanged.

Latest IG Index spread prices: LAB 355-362 : CON 190-197 : LDs 70-74

Latest Spreadfair prices: LAB 357-359 : CON 189-194 : LDs 71-73.4