But if not the Chancellor – who? The current best price on Gordon Brown to be next leader of the Labour Party is 1/4. That means that if you bet £100 your winnings would be £25 and given Tony Blair’s statement about his plans then you could be waiting for, maybe, four years to collect. If so your winnings would barely cover the interest on putting the money in the building society. But have the recent promotions of Charles Clarke…
…or will the price slip further Following the decline of the Tories in the spread betting markets and the new version of the Martin Baxter seat calculator with a tactical unwind element a number of people have asked whether we consider that the party is now a good buy. We think that the current spread level is based on the depressed opinion poll ratings for the party and the ongoing poor publicity that Michael Howard is getting. We do not…
! Which MPs should be thinking about their future careers? If you are returning to your computer today after the holiday don’t forget to enter our General Election Competition – entries close on Saturday. Already a big range of predictions has emerged and there has been particular interest in several of the seat-specific elements. Bethnal Green and Bow has produced a range of predictions covering four possible outcomes. Will George Galloway do it? If he doesn’t will his campaign undermine…
Will Martin’s new calculator change the way we look at the election? The former Cambridge and now city mathematician, Martin Baxter, has produced a new version of his famous Commons seat calculator to build in an element of tactical vote unwind. This is the effect that a number of experts think might happen as a result of Lib Dem supporters returning to their normal allegiance after switching to Labour in 1997 and 2001 to get the Tories out. If this…
The Tory rollercoaster continues to fall With the Tory buy price on the spread markets down to 197 seats – just 32 more than the 2001 General Election total – the question of whether there will be another Tory calamity depends on the outcome of a battle in which the party will hardly be involved and over which, like William Hague’s rollercoaster in the picture, it has little control For the real issue that will determine whether it is Blair…
What happens when the money runs out Apart from George Bush no American has had a greater impact on UK politics in the past year than Dick Morris. He was the election strategist who masterminded victory for President Bill Clinton, and was hired to be the brains behind the United Kingdom Independence party’s campaign at the Euro Elections last June. His involvement was first noticed by the then Observer columnist, Nick Cohen, who more than two months beforehand wrote this…
UKIP will get less than 2% of the national vote The UKIP threat to Michael Howard’s party at the General Election could be blunted by the rules which determine how the broadcasting organisations are allowed to cover the campaign once it has been declared. For although these have yet to be finalised they will almost certainly follow previous practice and allocate the lion’s share of election broadcasts to those defined as “major parties” – Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats and, in…