Could they really have planned it like this? An interesting theory is put forward by James Blitz in the Financial Times today suggesting that the the Brown-Blair row might be part of a “cunning plot”. He notes First, it helped to get the prime minister over a very bad start to election year. The idea that Mr Blair had misjudged the public mood over the Asian tsunami – staying too long on holiday – had begun to crystallise in the…
Could the former TV star be the joker in the pack? A completely unknown factor in the coming General Election is the impact of Robert Kilroy-Silk, the former Labour MP turned TV presenter turned UKIP MEP and now possibly leader of his own new party. According to the Guardian’s Backbencher column “…Kilroy’s increasingly desperate search for a political home may be about to come to an end. Having been narrowly rejected by both the English Democrats and the New Party…
Forget the Blair-Brown squabble: Blair-Bush is the one that matters With Michael Howard trying to squeeze every bit of political capital over Gordon Brown’s views of the PM’s approach to the truth punters should not forget the other of Tony Blair’s partnerships that has done far far more damage than the Tories ever can to Labour. His decision to join George Bush in the Iraqi adventure has hurt the party dear and no amount of massaging the figures can gloss…
Where are the “Will Alistair Go markets” of today? There was a time when the hot activity in the political betting markets was on the Betfair betting exchange. This was driven by a series of innovative betting propositions that caught the imagination of punters. Would Alistair Campbell survive his grilling at the Hutton inquiry?; what were the survival chances of Geoff Hoon?; would Greg Dyke hold onto his job as Director-General of the BBC?; was IDS’s position as Tory leader…
Is this the way to a near-certain profit? One of the site’s regular contributors, Jon, has come forward with an ingenious plan that could be the nearest there is to a “sure thing” on the General Election. His idea is simple – BUY the Tories at £10 a seat, at the level 195 seats on the spread-betting markets. At the same time BACK Labour for £1000 to win most seats at the General Election at the current price of 1.18…
What if the Lib Dems gain 5% during the campaign? The big question for all those trying to forecast the 2005 General Election is will there be the traditional Lib Dem bounce? For at every General Election since 1987 the Lib Dems have enjoyed spectacular increases of support during the formal campaign – in each case taking votes from Labour. In 1992, 1997 and 2001 the party was starting from a poll position in the low and mid-teens. This time…
The online political bookshop, Politicos, has agreed to put up the prize for our General Election Prediction Competition. What are described as £150 worth of “political anoraky things” will be presented to the entrant who gets most points in the competition, which closed on Saturday. Just under 100 site users have submitted entries and the marking will take place when the full results are known. The competition has attracted media coverage and there was a good reference in the Atticus…
One article says Labour’s lead is down – another says it isn’t A new NOP poll in the Independent shows a drop in the Labour lead from 9% to 6% – or does it? It all depends on which of the paper’s commentators you believe. The Strathclyde politics professor, John Curtice, describes the poll in these terms:- Labour currently has a six-point lead over the Conservatives in our NOP poll, enough to ensure that Mr Blair would be re-elected for…