For the second day running the spread-betting price on the number of MPs that punters think the party will get at the coming election has moved upwards.

After yesterday’s two seat rise IG Index have added a further seat at the expense of Labour. Today’s spreads are:- LAB 356-363 (-1): CON 186-193 (+1): LDs 71-75.

We do not know whether this is as a result of more money going on or just a precautionary step by the firm in advance of the January YouGov survey that’s expected tomorrow in the Daily Telegraph. Quite often the firm emails us if there has been exceptional betting activity.

If the Tories are going to stage a recovery then conditions are right for this to be reflected in the coming YouGov poll.

The UKIP threat has clearly declined following the Kilroy-Silk departure and the party’s immigration policies might have made a dent in the Labour YouGov lead that’s been there since August.

A possible black cloud for Michael Howard would be if any move from Labour went to the Lib Dems instead – as happened in the weekend’s survey.

One thing’s for certain – tomorrow’s YouGov figures will be nothing like as positive for the Tories as the same survey exactly a year ago when the party was on 40%.

If there is no progress in tomorrow’s poll then we would expect the Tory price to slip back.

Mike Smithson