Just nine points now separate the three main parties

A YouGov poll to be published in the Sunday Times tomorrow sees both Labour and the Tories going down and the Lib Dems moving up to 25%. The figures showing the changes since the last YouGov poll before Christmas are: LAB 34(-1): CON 31(-1): LD 25(+2)

Labour’s 34% is the lowest share from the internet pollster since August

The Tories’ 31% is the second lowest share with YouGov for more than a year. Only a 29% rating after the Labour conference in October was worse.

The Lib Dems’ 25% is the highest rating with any pollster since their post-conference boost in the Autumn and their best figure from YouGov since the Hutton inquiry was making the headlines in the autumn of 2003.

Using Martin Baxter’s uniform national swing calculator the poll would produce the following House of Commons: LAB 362: CON 191: LD 62. This takes no account of special LD targetting nor tactical unwind which many commentators now believe will happen.

The lack of progress by Labour and the rising Lib Dem threat could take the steam out of the recent surge by Labour on the spread-betting markets.

In our New Year competition the majority of entrants put YouGov down as the pollster most likely to be the most accurate at the General Election.

At this stage before the 2001 General Election ICM had Labour at 47%; the Tories on 32% and the LDs on 15%. Labour went on to drop five points and the LDs to put on four. If that was to happen again Charles Kennedy’s party and Tony Blair’s party would be level-pegging with the Tories ahead.

We expect another survey this weekend and when we have it this article will be updated.

Mike Smithson