What will be the impact of “others”? The macro polling trend of 2004 has been the emergence of “others” as a serious electoral force that looks set to have a big impact on the General Election outcome. This is how the main pollsters are showing others in their latest surveys compared with those in January 2004. YouGov – Main three parties 88% (-6%) Others 12% (+6%) Populus – Main three parties 90% (-3%) Others 10% (+3%) ICM – Main three…
The main two parties remain unchanged in the Decvember YouGov poll which is out today a week earlier than usual. The only move is a small reduction for the Lib Dems. The figures are CON 32(nc), LAB 35 (nc), LD 21 (-2) OTH 12 (+2). The full details of the poll are not yet available but it will be interesting to find out how UKIP is doing because YouGov traditionally have them at a higher figure. Throughout 2004 the Labour…
Can a divided party continue to win support? As the Tories have proved so effectively in the past two General Elections the electorate likes unity and is turned off by divisions in parties that are seeking their support. With the Cabinet changes following the Blunkett resignation the old tensions between Gordon Brown and Tony Blair have come to the surface again with the Brown camp said to be alarmed at Blair’s decision to install David Miliband as Alan Milburn’s deputy…
How real were the betting markets? On the morning of December 1st we received an email from William Hill saying that the odds against David Blunkett not being Home Secretary on New Year’s Day were 7/2. We put this out on the site saying the price looked tempting but it did not appear to be online. Throughout the next few days we repeatedly checked the Hill’s site wanting to put some money on but the market was not there. We…
Will the loss of the Mail’s “Giant amongst pygmies” hurt Blair? The best bookmaker price on Labour winning most seats has eased from 1/7 to 1/6 in the aftermath of the Home Secretary’s dramatic resignation yesterday. Although not a big move it does reflect the importance that David Blunkett had in leading for Labour on the key theme of their pre-General Election legislative programme. Almost all the keynote bills in last month’s Queen’s Speech, including the introduction of compulsory ID…
Could complacency costs votes and seats It’s generally agreed that a key reason why the turnout in 2001 dropped to below 60% was that the outcome seemed like a foregone conclusion. Nobody could really believe that William Hague’s Tory party posed a serious threat and this caused people to stay at home. The polls, clearly, had a part to play in this but even taking in the 6.6% average overstatement of Labour’s margin the Tories were always miles behind and…
Thanks for all your patience. We have been having serious server problems this week and a completely new server will be installed at the weekend. The original technical set-up was not designed for a site that is as active as Politicalbetting has become. Mike Smithson
Now firm second favourite on both sides of the Atlantic The huge publicity build-up for London’s 2012 Olympic bid seems to have caught the imagination of punters in the UK and internationally. The best bookmaker price in the UK is now 7/2 with just over 5/1 available on Betfair. Interestingly there been a sharp move to London on the Tradesports exchange which is focused on the US market. For a long time New York was in the second spot behind…