The main two parties remain unchanged in the Decvember YouGov poll which is out today a week earlier than usual. The only move is a small reduction for the Lib Dems. The figures are CON 32(nc), LAB 35 (nc), LD 21 (-2) OTH 12 (+2). The full details of the poll are not yet available but it will be interesting to find out how UKIP is doing because YouGov traditionally have them at a higher figure.

Throughout 2004 the Labour YouGov share has not moved out of the range 34-36% – a remarkably consistent performance which is 3-4% below what the main telephone pollsters, ICM and NOP, have been recording.

YouGov’s record on Labour has been to slightly over-state so we think that they are probably closer than the other two.

I was one of the members of the YouGov panel who got 50 pence for completing the survey for this month’s poll – the first time they had asked me in nearly two years. It took place before and after the Blunkett resignation. Only about one in ten of those in the survey responded after the big news about the Home Secretary.

It will be interesting to see if the December ICM poll, which should be out on Tuesday, record any major changes. We do not expect any betting moves up or down.

Mike Smithson