The betting markets give it to Bush
- But will the Dow and the Redskins have it right?
With just a day to go the polls have it as a dead heat but political gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic are putting their money behind George Bush.
The “gambling” lead that emerged after the Osama video on Friday has been sustained and looks as though it is getting tighter. Gallup, the pollster which had been recording bigger Bush margins than the others, now has it as a dead heat.
The electoral vote predictors, based on state polls, are showing a Kerry lead. Slate now has it 299 Kerry to 239 Bush.
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Is there betting value on Kerry? Given all the polls and numbers we think that the odds on the challenger doing it should be tighter than they are. A Kerry bet is a value bet.
POINTS
Bush 55 Kerry 44Iowa Political Futures Market
Bush 55 Kerry 45 Tradesports exchange
Bush 1.72 Kerry 2.36 Betfair exchange
Bush 4/7 Kerry 5/4 UK bookmaker best price