Betfair Bush UPDATED – 0200 BST Friday

There’ve been big moves against George Bush on the Betfair betting exchange following revelations on ABC TV that one of its crews had filmed the missing explosives in Iraq nine days after the fall of the country. This starts.

The strongest evidence to date indicates that conventional explosives missing from Iraq’s Al-Qaqaa installation disappeared after the United States had taken control of Iraq.

Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by ABC television affiliate KSTP of St. Paul, Minn., which had a crew embedded with the 101st Airborne Division when it passed through Al-Qaqaa on April 18, 2003 — nine days after Baghdad fell.

At one stage the Bush price on Betfair reached evens but then it settled down a bit. Perhaps this is due to the lack of response on the US markets to the news.

It is not often that punters in the UK have been more reactive than those in the US.

More than $5m has now been matched on the White House race on the UK betting exchange Betfair. Add on the $8m that the conventional bookmakers are predicting and then factor in the spread betting markets and you get $15m – the UK’s biggest foreign political betting market ever. The interest has never been as great.

The ABC news story followed a day of stalemate. There’ve been new polls showing the same split view as of the past few days and on the betting markets the move to Kerry has held but little progress has been made.

For a good users guide to the pollsters check out this feature on Slate.

The latest polls are:-
Bush 46 Kerry 49 DCorps. Kerry +1
Bush 48 Kerry 46 Zogby daily tracking. Bush +1
Bush 47 Kerry 44 Tipp tracking Kerry +1
Bush 48 Kerry 49 ABC/WP . No change

Betting round up
Bush 53 Kerry 47 Iowa Political Futures Market
Bush 55 Kerry 45 Tradesports exchange
Bush 8/11 Kerry 6/5 UK best prices

With four full days to go we are sticking with the call on John Kerry that we made here on May 18. It is going to be tight and nothing is certain but all the signs are that those opposed to the President are motivated that bit more than those who want to give George Bush a second term.