How will punters react to Blair’s health, Hartlepool and the debate?

With the Hartlepoool by-election, Tony Blair’s health news and the first Kerry-Bush TV debate it’s likely that we’ll see a lot of activity on betting markets right across the board.

Labour Leader at General Election A considerable amount of movement here and we expect the Blair price to move out in spite of the statement of his plans for the future. The by-election victory would make it easier for Tony Blair to step down on health grounds and there will be lots of specualtion. In the immediate aftermath of the news the price eased from 3/10 to 1/2. This has come back a touch. There will also be a hardening of prices on the likely sucessors, Gordon Brown, Alan Milburn, Peter Hain and Jack Straw.

Still Party Leaders at General election. The Kennedy-only price should tighten in line with the price moves on Blair’s future at Number 10.

UK General Election Spread Market showing changes during the week. LAB 335-343 (-3): CON 214-222 (+2): LIBD 68-72(+2). These will move back to Labour following the Tory position in Hartlepool. After the July contests the Labour spread moved to 346-354. It could now go to a sell price above 350. The Lib Dem spread should also move upwards – all this at the expense the the Conservative price. All this could go into the melting pot if there was a new Labour leader.

General Election Seat Winner The Labour price has hardened and the best odds are 2/9.

Date of General Election May 2005 will become a hotter favourite though it could be affected if Tony Blair did step down. Would Brown/Milburn/Straw/Hain want to go to the country straight away?

White House Race. Everything will depend on media and polling reaction to the debate.