The betting exchange, Betfair, have now opened a market on the Hartlepool by-election. So far there are very few backers and layers but Labour is just favourite over the LDs. Labour are 1/2 while the LD current price is 2/3. This could change quickly.

If I was sitting in front of my computer rather than composing this on my smartphone sitting on a French beach I would be trying to lay Labour at 1/2. There are only 2 parties in it and they are closer than the price suggests.

Although UKIP came 2nd to Labour there in the Euro Elections the LDs came a strong 2nd in the local council poll held at exactly the same time with the same voters.

If Kilroy-Silk had been candidate UKIP might have had a chance. As it stands the UKIP bubble looks as though will burst in Hartlepool giving some relief to Michael Howard.

The convenional bookmaker, William Hill told us 10 days ago that thiey won’t be opening a market on the “Monkey-town” by-election unti the date is fixed and all the candidates are known. This is a pity because there’s a lot of interest.