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Month: July 2004

If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If electors in tomorrow’s two by-election vote in accordance with the latest national opinion polls then Labour will have huge victories in both Birmingham and Leicestereven though the party’s share nationally has dropped by ten per cent since the last General Election. According to the latest General Election projection produced for each Westminster seat by the City mathematician, Martin Baxter, these would be the results:- Birmingham Hodge Hill LAB 50.8%: CON 19.3%: LIB 11.1%: OTH 18.6% Leicester South LAB 43.4%:…

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Why does nobody want to bet on Labour?

Why does nobody want to bet on Labour?

Could the Lib Dems win both Westminster seats? An almost total absence of Labour backers led to last night’s price moves on the by-election betting markets which leave the Lib Dems as heavy odds-on favourites in Leicester and at times touching evens in Birmingham. William Hill closed their market at the stated time with the Lib Dems on 4/11. If the betting markets are correct then there’s a chance that the party could be heading for two number one positions…

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Have the by-election prices gone too low?

Have the by-election prices gone too low?

Leicester LDs tighten even further – now 4/11 With all bets you have to ask yourself – what is the risk and what is the return? If the potential winnings are greater than the risk then you have a good value bet. If not then don’t bet. We’ve been calling the Lib Dems in Leicester South for weeks and we stick with that – but we do not believe that the current 4/11 , which it has moved to this…

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Monday Call – July 12 2004

Monday Call – July 12 2004

Updated 1-50pm Will the Kerry-Edwards price tighten even further? At the end of the month thousands of Democrat delegates will head for their party’s Convention in Boston to endorse formally the Kerry-Edwards ticket and start the campaign. The choice of John Edwards for the V-P place has gone down well in the polls and they are scenting victory. Yet at the turn of the year, as the following shows, nobody gave the party a chance of ousting Bush from the…

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Betting on the by-elections & other markets

Betting on the by-elections & other markets

More bookmakers open by-election markets Even though the main online political bookmaker, William Hill, closed their by-election markets, as they said they would, on Friday evening another bookmaker and a betting exchange have now decided to get involved. Click through on this link and choose either PaddyPower or Betfair. The PaddyPower prices are nothing like as attractive for most options as William Hill was last week. Its latest prices are:- Leicester South: Lib Dem 4-6: LAB 15-8: CON 5-1: Birmingham…

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Dealing with the polls’ Labour bias

Dealing with the polls’ Labour bias

Creating a tool for General Election betting One of the great challenges with General Election betting is the opinion poll bias to Labour. At the last three General Elections this has been an average 6.5%. At the Euro Election in June even the internet pollster, YouGov overstated Labour and understated the Tories. To help with this we are proposing what we are calling the Politicalbetting Polls Variance Calculation which weights and averages poll results according to their proven record in…

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Does this man really want to win Leicester South?

Does this man really want to win Leicester South?

What would a by-election victory do for his career? Last month Chris Heaton-Harris (above) – Conservative candidate in Leicester South – was re-elected as an MEP for a further five years. What we find odd is that he’s said he will give up being an MEP if he wins. For if victory does come next Thursday then the chances of the Tories retaining the seat in the General Election are very slim. It would take a gigantic swing on the…

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Boost for Kerry in White House Polls

Boost for Kerry in White House Polls

A big boost for the Kerry-Edward ticket in the White House race by the latest crop of polls. These are the first surveys since the Vice-Presidential choice was announced and John Kerry must be delighted at the way Americans are responding. In the NBC News poll Kerry-Edwards are beating Bush-Cheney by 49-41. Other polls have smaller margins but there is a clear gap between the two tickets. UK betting prices on Kerry have tightened during the week although you can…

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