Post Updated Sunday – 0530

But be careful about rushing in to bet

Unsurprisingly two opinion polls this morning show that a big majority of UK voters would vote NO in the planned referendum on the EU Constitution that was agreed in Brussels on Friday. YouGov for the Sunday Times has 23% in favour to 49% against. An ICM poll, commissioned by the non-party NO campaign, has 28% in favour to 57% against.

But political gamblers should be very wary about puting up money at this stage. Six months ahead of the 1975 referendum on whether the UK should stay or leave the EEC the polls were showing big support for the NO position. Yet by the time it came to the actual election 67.5% voted to stay in.

Just one bookmaker has a market at the moment which is very much in line with the polls. We expect other bookmakers to follow as this become a bigger issue.

The prices are:- YES 2.62: NO 1.44. Thus if you bet £100 on it being rejected and it was you would receive back £144, including your stake. A successful £100 YES bet would produce £262 including your stake.

The main problem with betting on this at the moment it that you do not know when the vote will take place or what the question will be – and this proved to be critical in 1975. You could be locking up your money for at least a year and a lot can happen in the intervening period.

These long-term political markets are fine if you are convinced that the prices will move substantially one way or the other. In this case neither the YES or NO odds seem to be particularly attractive and we would suggest, at the minimum, waiting for other bookmakers to come into the market. It would also be good if one of the betting exchanges came in though, until some of the key political issues are settled, there would be little liquidity in the market.

Our CALL – DON’T BET AT THE MOMENT.