Our big call on Steve Norris is three-quarters of the way there

Mayor of London – person or party. It’s dead easy to call a 1/8 favourite – it’s much harder to call at odds of 11 or more which is what we’ve been doing for months. We said back Norris when he was 21% behind in the polls and prices were in double digits. Now YouGov’s latest London poll shows that Livingstone’s lead has collapsed to a mere 5% amongst those “certain to vote”. So it’s going to be down to second preferences where Ken cannot rely on Frank Dobson voters as he did four years ago. Most Lib Dem 2nd preferences then went to Norris. What will the next poll show and how will the prices move? In a normal election market with a 5% gap that’s narrowing sharply you would expect prices of 1.5 for the leader and 2.5 for the challenger. BACK Norris while you can still get good value

White House Race 2004. The tightness of the race is not being reflected in the UK prices. As we have said this is becoming a referendum on Bush whose popularity goes up and down in line with the level of bad news from Iraq. But what will be the cumulative affect of all this? Kerry really does have a good chance and at 2.1 or more is really good value. This will surely move downwards. BACK KERRY.

Party winning most seats at UK General Election. Wait until after the Euro and Local Elections on June 10 when the Labour prices will be better. Provided the post-June 10 opinion polls are showing Tories leads of 6% or less then backing Labour should be a good value bet. The Tory success in the 1999 Euro Elections had no impact on subsequent opinion polls or the 2001 General Election.

Spread Betting on Commons seats. The Spread Betting bookmakers make their money in the spead – the difference between the BUY price if you want to back a party and the SELL price if you think it’s going to be lower. If the spreads are about right then there is very little value. That’s our view of the current markets. DON’T BET.

Labour Leader at General Election. Gordon Brown has been moving back up the market but we are not convinced that Tony Blair will be going so DON’T BET in the Betfair and William Hill market. If you think that Blair will not be there, as last week, William Hill’s price is much better. A less risky bet is laying Blair/Kennedy in the Party Leaders market. With this you win if either or both leaders go. It’s gone quiet on the Kennedy front but this could change post-June 10 if the Euro results are not as good as hoped for. The Lib Dems succeed through brilliantly targeting – something that’s not possible with the massive Euro regions.

UK Euro Constitution Referendum. Wait until we know the date and what the deal contains. The odds are not very encouraging on either side. DON’T BET.

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NOTE: When we make a call we are stating that we believe that the chances of something happening are better than the odds that are available. All prices quoted are as at time of posting. We endeavour to ensure that material is accurate when posted. However Politicalbetting.com can accept no respnsiblity for the information on the site or opinions expressed. Users make bets entirely at their own risk.

Picture – http://www.rttimes.co.uk/_images/db/7/42/steve_norris_speech.74273.full.jpg