The battle for Labour appears to be being won by contender with the “assisted place” on the ballot
New YouGov LAB members’ polling suggests Corbyn heading for easy victory
Last week’s big LAB leadership news was the decision of the party’s NEC that Corbyn, as the incumbent, should not be troubled by the need to find MP/MEP nominations in order to get on the ballot which had been triggered by Angela Eagle. It was always reckoned that he would struggle in that task and the NEC’s decision was clearly vital.
Overnight the Times has the first polling of LAB members who were in the party prior to the qualifying date that was laid down by the NEC. The figures are in the graphic above. The full data from the poll has not yet been published but there is little comfort from the numbers for either Eagle or Smith. Corbyn’s position is getting stronger.
Of course this is very early in the process. Neither Eagle or Smith are that well known and neither have actually started the process of campaigning. Also a lot could happen between now and September 24th when the result will be announced.
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But it is hard to argue with the current Betfair betting which gives Corbyn a 68% chance of holding on
We are in a high octane political period and we have yet to see much polling response to Theresa May as PM.
The expectation is that Smith or Eagle will agree amongst themselves to have a single candidate running against Corbyn. That would at least stop any argument between them getting in the way of their central message that Labour’s general election chances are hopeless under the current leadership.
There’s also reported to be a legal case against the NEC over its decision to give Corbyn favourable treatment.
One thing that is helping Corbyn is that May has ruled out an early general election. If that was a real prospect then the whole climate would be more frenzied.