Sadiq Khan 20% ahead of Goldsmith according to Survation phone poll
New Survation London Mayoral poll has Khan 15% ahead
Khan 49%
Zac 34%
UKIP 5%
LD 3%
GRN 3%— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016
Survation Mayoral poll after allocating 2nd prefs
Khan 60%
Zac 40%— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016
Survation Mayoral poll was by phone & carried out from Apr 21 to 25
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016
So on the face of it a great poll for Sadiq Khan, Labour, Corbyn and those PBers who got on the Labour man at 33/1 in March 2103 when Henry G Manson tipped him.
But the survey took place before the blow up involving the last LAB mayor of London, Ken Livingston and phone polls have not had a good record on London Mayoral contests.
Of the 2012 final polls the least accurate was the only phone survey.
There’s also an issue that Labour voters might be less likely to turnout given it looks like a foregone conclusion.
Just in case I’ve been laying off large parts of my 2013 Sadiq bet at odds of up to 17/1 on Betfair so I’m certain of a substantial pay day next Friday whatever happens.