Are punters anticipating a polling boost?

David Cameron’s conference speech seems to have gone down well on the spread betting markets where there has been a shift to the Tories this morning. Sporting Index has moved up two seats and is now only four seats below the market high in mid-September when an Ipsos-MORI poll came in with a 28% Tory lead.

In this form of betting punters “trade” the number of seats as though they were stocks and shares and if you anticipate thing right you can get out of your position and take your profit now even though the general election might be nineteen months away.

This is a form of gambling for those who happy with the risk, are confident about their ability to predict and, preferably, have deep pockets. If you get it wrong you can chalk up massive losses. On the other hand if you are right you can make a lot of money.

I should say that I am not changing changing any of my positions at the moment.

Betting update: IG Index is running a spread market on the Tory share in the next YouGov poll. The spread is 45.75 – 46.25. I think it is worth a small punt on a buy.

For those who want to know more about this can I suggest my book – The Political Punter – How to make money betting on politics which is still available mail order for £10. It might be a great investment – but then I would say that!

Mike Smithson