The big surprise next Thursday will be the size of the Ukip vote
Big split in betting opinion on Ukip’s chances of winning #Eastleigh. PaddyPower have it at 25/1 – Ladbrokes now 12/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2013
Farage’s party will do better than we think
All the reports I am getting from Eastleigh suggest that Ukip is going to do well in the by-election next Thursday and those who took my advice on Monday to back them in the LAB vote match markets are likely to end up as winners.
At the start of the week I got odds longer than evens that Ukip would beat Labour. Now Farage’s party has tightened to 1/3 with Ladbrokes and PaddyPower and is at 1/4 with William Hill.
We should get a clearer picture in the next 24 hours or so with a third Eastleigh poll expected to be published.
My reading as well is that the CON-LD position is tighter than some reports have suggested though a lot on the day could be determined by the strength of the get out the vote operations.
Mike Smithson
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