Are we now heading for a Conservative majority?

As well as the Ken-Boris survey there’s also a Populus poll on national voting intentions in the Sunday Mirror. This records the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster nearly three weeks ago CON 40% (+1): LAB 30% (-3): LD 19% (+2)

Looking at previous surveys from the firm on UKPollingreport these are the worst figures for Labour that we have ever seen. In February there was a 9% margin but Populus have never reported a double digit deficit before.

The firm’s past vote weighting and certainty to vote formulas are slightly more favourable to Labour than the main phone pollster, ICM which has also been finding big Labour deficits.

What is clear is that the internal bickering within Labour about the abolition of the 10% tax band does not suggest a united party – and all the evidence is that lack of unity gets punished in the polls.

Unlike the non-BPC listed MRUK whose London poll featured in the previous thread, Populus operates past vote weighting to ensure a politically balanced sample and also weights on the likelihood that respondents will actually vote.

This latest polling will underpin the recent trend on the betting markets towards support for the Tories winning the next election with an overall majority. My guess is that the spread markets on commons seats will see a further move against Labour.

Mike Smithson