Unlike Bradford West there’s nothing in the betting to suggest anything but LAB holds in Thursday’s 3 by-elections
Betfair data shows that there’s hardly a rush of money going on parties other than LAB in Rotherham. £61 backing Respect & £62 UKIP
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012
Betfair data also show that in Croydon N the total of bets bcking Respect totals just £34 with £0 going on UKIP.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012
On the Middlesbrough Betfair market nobody has backed anycandidate other than LAB. Last price traded 1/100.
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 27, 2012
On the Tuesday before the Bradford West by-election we started to get reports of abnormal betting activity with a fair bit of money being placed both online and at local bookies on a George Galloway victory.
His price moved in from about 10/1 to 5/1 but still the bets continued to be made.
Looking back that was a pretty solid indication that those associated with the campaign thought they were on to a winner – which as it turned out they were.
Judging by Betfair, where punters bet with each other, there’s nothing to suggest that we are going to see a repetition. All three seats look like LAB holds on reduced turnouts.
At the general election Labour had solid five figures majorities in all three seats.
Mike Smithson
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