Why I am betting on him at 18/1 to win Wisconsin

Rick Santorum and George Galloway made Q1 2012 a very successful start to 2012 for my political betting. I had wins at up to 50/1 in Iowa, 100/1 in Colorado and, of course, 33/1 in last week’s Bradford by-election. My one loss was on Huntsman coming in second in New Hampshire.

And so into Q2 and I’m taking a punt on Santorum in today’s Wisconsin primary. The polls suggest that he’s about 7.5% behind yet I think that he’s got a fighting chance of doing it.

A characteristic of Santorum’s campaign has been that repeatedly he’s been understated in the polling. In the final surveys in Iowa, Colorado, Alabama and Mississippi Santo was in second or even third place yet he won each time. Also the latest Wisconsin polling has a move back to him.

He’s facing Mitt Romney who at the weekend was claiming victory in the state – a move which isn’t going to encourage his supporters to get out to vote.

The most critical voter communications message at the close of a campaign is that every single vote matters and to say or do something that could deter someone from turning out is lunacy.

One thing’s for sure – Obama, with his much derided community activist background, won’t make the same mistake in November.

The Romney victory claim also shows his flat-footedness in managing expectations.

I’ve got an average 18/1 for Santorum in Wisconsin. He’s certainly got a better chance than that.

@MikeSmithsonOGH