Could Brown risk an October election based on this data?

The full detail from yesterday’s ICM poll for the Sunday Mirror is now on the ICM website and, as I usually do, have clipped the voting intention the above voting intention data categories by what respondents said they did last time.

My rationale is that the views of declared actual voters and how their allegiances are churning give a different picture compared with the headline figures – which include the choices of a large number of respondents who said they did not vote in 2005. With only three out of every five voters bothering to turn out in general elections then it is the known voters that we should focus on first.

The bad news for Cameron is that The Tories are only retaining 87% of those who said they voted for Howard’s party last time. This compares with 88% for Labour which is the first time, I believe, that Brown’s party has been ahead.

The good news for Cameron is that enough 2005 Labour and Lib Dem voters say they have switched that their net position is slightly better than Labour. Also, I would guess, in a general election situation there would be a polarisation of views and that 87% retention number might increase.

Labour are still the worthy favourites but if I was Gordon I would like to see some better figures than these.

Mike Smithson