But no by election bounce for Gordon

The July ICM survey for the Guardian is just out and shows a one point decline in the Labour lead. The figures compared with the last ICM poll a week and a half ago are CON 32% (-1): LAB 38% (-2): LD 20% (+1)

The survey took place from the Friday after the by elections and finished on Sunday evening. So the headlines were mostly dominated by Labour’s success and the progress that the Lib Dems made.

The Tories must be relieved that the poll is not as bad as it might have been while Labour might be a tad disappointed that their share is down a touch.

For Ming a return to the 20s from the pollster that usually gives them the best ratings will be a welcome relief and might ease some of the pressure that’s been on his leadership.

The fact the the lead is down, if only by just a point, will take away some of the case for Gordon to go to the country early.

Next polls: This coming weekend there will be at least two polls being carried out – Populus for the Times and Communicate Research for the Indy. I’m also expecting a YouGov poll in the Telegraph on Friday.

Please note I have changed the comparison figures above to the last ICM poll.

Mike Smithson