And ICM looks like another 6-7% Labour lead

With the flooding story continuing to dominate the news the Guardian has postponed publication of its ICM survey for July which was carried out over the weekend in the immediate aftermath of Thursday’s by elections. So we don’t know the precise figures but Michael Crick on Newsnight last night suggested it was in the same region as the last ICM poll a week and a half ago which had Labour 7% ahead.

If this is correct it’s probably quite good news for the Tories who might have been expecting something worse given what was being reported during the three days when the poll was being carried out.

So it appears that there’s been no by election bounce on top of the ongoing Brown bounce.

The Mail, meanwhile, turns its formidable guns on David Cameron for going ahead with his trip to Rwanda with the memorable headline “So where’s the member for washed out Witney?”.

It reports that Cameron is handling the criticism robustly and will say in a speech that will not be welcome in all parts of his party“…there are some people in Britain who told me not to come. They said I should stay at home and worry about domestic concerns. Well let me tell them – and let me tell you – that in the 21st century, a century of global trade, global migration, and yes, global terrorism, there is no “domestic” and “foreign” any more. In this world today, we are all in it together. “The rich cannot escape the consequences of poverty and instability. What happens in one place affects many others.”

Clearly this was a very hard call for the Tory leader although there is one compensatory feature – at least he’s back on the front pages after two months of saturation Brown coverage.

Another factor that should provide some relief to Cameron is that Sunday’s story about Tory MPs making written request for a confidence vote on their leader appears to have run out of steam. Moves like this require momentum and there’s been nothing more. In fact the coverage seems to have prompted a display of unity within the party.

Whatever misgivings there might be about Cameron’s leadership there seems to be no stomach at the moment for rocking the boat.

I had been expecting several major polls this week. One that isn’t going to happen until next week is the monthly Communicate Research survey for the Independent. I am also told that the Times is bringing forward its August poll and fieldwork for that will also take place over the weekend. Those two could be very interesting.

Mike Smithson