ICM puts Labour 15% behind with Brown

The March ICM poll for the Guardian tomorrow gives the Tories their biggest share from the pollster since August 1992 and has the worst figures ever for Labour’s would-be leader, Gordon Brown.

The main voting intention shares with changes on the last ICM poll nine days ago are: CON 41% (+1): LAB 31% (+2): LD 18% (-3).

But when the named leader question was put – which party would respondents support in a contest between Mr Brown, Mr Cameron and Sir Menzies Campbell – the shares were CON 43%: LAB 28%: LD 18%.

With Labour’s leadership election only weeks away there is no escaping that these are dreadful figures for the Chancellor. Yes – the question is theoretical but the broad position has been seen in poll after poll.

If it is any consolation the betting price on Brown getting the job has tightened to 0.23/1.

Mike Smithson