Like the Casino decision a warning of the dangers of following the market

After yesterday’s sensational news that the betting outsider, Manchester, had won the race for Britain’s new super casino I thought I would look back at the last time when the betting markets got it totally wrong.

For next week, no doubt, Lib Dem will be celebrating the first anniversary of the party’s sensational victory over Labour in the Dunfermline by election which took place in the aftermath of Charles Kennedy having to stand down as leader and the tabloid revelations on Mark Oaten and Simon Hughes – two of the main figures to emerge in the contest to replace him.

A few days beforehand YouGov in the Daily Telegraph had put the party on 13%. How could the then leaderless party succeed in the seat next door to Gordon Brown’s?

These are the final fifty minutes of the Politicalbetting threads before the Dunfermline result was announced. The swings in the betting are truly amazing.

Read it. It’s exciting and amazing how the betting market got it so completely wrong right at the end. Quite why punters were piling into Labour in those final five minutes is not clear.

This is a salutary warning not to just follow favourites

LDs shortening on betfiar re DF.
Tabman February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pm

Has any government EVER had such a good -election record?
The Professor February 9th, 2006 at 11:42 pm

LibDem agent in Dunfermline says they are ‘optimistic of retaining second place’.
Nick Palmer MP February 9th, 2006 at 11:43 pm

Professor) If you correct for the lower number of -elections these days (longer life expectancy and younger MPs), the Tories in the 1950s were about equal – or arguably slightly better since they actually gained Sunderland South while they were in government.
book value February 9th, 2006 at 11:45 pm

Money going on Lib Dems in Dunfermline and no one laying Labour What is going on
Mark Senior February 9th, 2006 at 11:47 pm

Yes, shortening quickly
Tabman February 9th, 2006 at 11:49 pm

Jack W has played a ramp very cleverly?
Lewis February 9th, 2006 at 11:50 pm

No doubt you will all win pots of money betting on the libdems even though LABOUR will win. Gordon really must regulate your activities.
The Professor February 9th, 2006 at 11:53 pm

Well with a 48% turnout then Labour have almost certainly won it. All Labour losses in elections have been on much lower turnouts = this is almost GE territory – in the same way that Hartlepool was.
Rob February 9th, 2006 at 11:55 pm

(Professor) Have you no sense of irony – “Gordon really must REGULATE…
You are without doubt (alas, even including Jack W…sorry old bean) the most consistently hilarious contributor to our proceedings: it’s the way you tell ‘em
John O February 9th, 2006 at 11:58 pm

• “Has any government EVER had such a good -election record? ”
It’s hard to say. This government ensures that -elections don’t occur in marginal Labour-held seats.
Sean Fear February 10th, 2006 at 12:09 am

• BTW No ramping on my part ! Haven’t had a brass farthing on D & FW. …… if you said on the Lib Dem leadership …. I plead guilty to the odd shilling on Huhne and a few pennies on Ming. I’m a loser on the Rev ….. but short of divine intervention !!
Anyway Lib Dems are in bouyant mood at the count ….. it’s close … but my tame BBC mans says they may have pulled it off ….. HEALTH warning ….. still counting.
Jack W February 10th, 2006 at 12:09 am

News 24 – lib dems look like they’ve won according to Curtice.
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:08 am

From BBC- ‘Lib Dems may have done it’
by Tim February 10th, 2006 at 12:08 am

Money available on lib dems betfair at 2.0 – £100 if you want it!
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:09 am

BBC website says turnout is 48.74%. I think that’s about 34,000 votes in total.
by Alan J February 10th, 2006 at 12:10 am

Gone now.
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:10 am

Sky News- ‘village vote’ may win it for Labour. VERY close.
by Tim February 10th, 2006 at 12:10 am

Not any more Amazing !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Mark Senior February 10th, 2006 at 12:11 am

Update ….. recount possible …. “Labour glum”. HEALTH warning still counting !!
by Jack W February 10th, 2006 at 12:15 am

SNP increased vote so it may have taken enough away from Labour for Liberals to win – Nicola Stureogn on Grampian TV (sp)
by marcia February 10th, 2006 at 12:16 am

Which media is covering the By Election? Will Andrew Neil’s programme stay on until the result, or will I have to rely on the radio? (I don’t have Sky etc.)
by Augustus Carp February 10th, 2006 at 12:18 am

For the Lib Dems to win they must have taken even more from Labour.
by Dean February 10th, 2006 at 12:18 am

It would be astonishing if LD won – truly astonishing, given the last month. Could be quite a significant blow to the current political scene, be it Blair, Cameron or SNP. Would also make Nick Palmer look like an utter idiot for his comments here over the last days. Would also be the first bye-election win from Labour by Lib Dems EVER. I dont believe it yet!…
by Mark February 10th, 2006 at 12:20 am

=“Would also be the first bye-election win from Labour by Lib Dems EVER.” Were you not still up for Brent E and Leicester S?
by book value February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 am

In Scotland, that is…
by Mark February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 am

‘Would also be the first bye-election win from Labour by Lib Dems EVER’ What?
by Tim February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 am

Have we forgotten Leicester South already? Never mind all the Liberal successes against Labour in by-elections past.
by Iain February 10th, 2006 at 12:21 am

Grampian TV – The SNP vote has gone up – Labour making excuses – Lib crowing – Tories making excuses
by marcia February 10th, 2006 at 12:22 am

The Tories must have utterly collapsed.
by David February 10th, 2006 at 12:22 am

Win or lose it is obviously so close my gast is flabbered
by Mark Senior February 10th, 2006 at 12:22 am

Labour favourites again on Betfair.
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:23 am

Exactly matched on 1.8 now…
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:24 am

Looks like Labour.
by Mike L February 10th, 2006 at 12:27 am

Looks like Labour have held on.
by Tabman February 10th, 2006 at 12:27 am

Betfair seems to suggest Labour have just held on…
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:27 am

Betfair indicating a Labour hold. I’m afraid
by somewhatanon February 10th, 2006 at 12:28 am

There’s money to be had on Betfair at 1.2 if Labour have won
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:29 am

Really poor show from the news channels here.
by ukpaul February 10th, 2006 at 12:30 am

Just chattering on
by marcia February 10th, 2006 at 12:30 am

All green. Not getting invoolved again
by somewhatanon February 10th, 2006 at 12:31 am

LD won
by Andrea February 10th, 2006 at 12:32 am

Bloody hell!
by Stephen Tall February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am

You can’t back the Lib Dems any more!
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am

Mi Lord Rennard does it again !!!!!!!!!!!!!
by Jack W February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am

Bloody hell Baldrick!
by Chrisco February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am

Disaster for Brown! What a slap in the face from the good folk of Fife.
by David February 10th, 2006 at 12:33 am

No recount?
by John13 February 10th, 2006 at 12:34 am

WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
by Mark Senior February 10th, 2006 at 12:35 am

What a thread and it’s is amazing how the markets got it so wrong.

Mike Smithson