The PB Index: CON MAJ 60 (nc)

After a night which has seen two very different views on the state of political opinion in the country what better than to look at how punters are reacting. Are they putting their cash behind the YouGov 40-31-16 or the ComRes 41-24-21? That’s a huge variation in the Labour share which it is hard to explain.

Today’s PB Index, which is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main seat betting markets and then extrapolating that into a General Election outcome, shows no change on the projection of December 3rd – the last time that we covered it.

During that period we have seen almost all the main pollsters producing new surveys and, of course, Labour’s critical PBR statement last Wednesday.

The Sporting Index spreads are: CON 352-357: LAB 208-213: LD 50-53 seats.

On the Betfair line market it is CON 352-360: LAB 208-214: LD 51-52: SNP 9.5-12.5: PC 4.5-5.5

I have now closed down my Labour buy spread contract at 208 seats – one more than the level that I bought at. So there’s a minuscule to pick up and which I can get immediately. My only other spread position is a Lib Dem buy at 50 seats which I’m staying with.

My understanding is that there are at least two major polls in the field at the moment and we should get the figures early next week. One of them is from Ipsos-MORI which last month sparked off the hung parliament talk when it had C37-L31-LD17.

Will MORI be narrow or wider? My guess is the latter but who knows?

Mike Smithson