How Lebanon is hitting Tony Blair

If you think that there has been too much polling data on PB.C this week then I am sorry but you’ll have to brace yourself for a whole lot more. For this morning I am delighted to announce that PB.C has come to an arrangement with YouGov for the regular supply of political polling data from the firm’s daily Brand Index survey.

This will allow the site to feature what I’m calling – The Good Week – Bad Week” Index for the three party leaders and Gordon

Each weekday for its commercial clients YouGov surveys 600 people to get their perceptions of different brands. This allows, for example, firms in the confectionery industry to be provided with up to date data on the impact of the salmonella cases on the Cadbury brand.

Political questions are asked in the survey and this is what the pollster is making available to PB.C. We have already seen some of this in two articles on reports from Anthony Wells’s UK Polling Report site. The arrangement with YouGov means that Anthony is preparing weekly information for us so that we can track just how perceptions of the performances of Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Ming Campbell are changing day-by-day.

With two new party leaders and the prospect of a change for Labour this could not come at a better time. Also while we might have had a feast of polling data this week we are about to enter a period of famine. There will not be a Populus Poll for the Times in August and the next planned regular surveys will ICM in the Guardian and the main YouGov political survey in the Telegraph at the end of next month.

The following are 5-day rolling averages and are based on the views on 3,000 people which is a much bigger sample than a conventional opinion poll. The question in each case is “Do you think that TB/GB/DC/MC is doing a good or bad job in his role as PM/Chancellor/Conservative Leader/Lib Dem leader”. For the Good Week – Bad week comparison I’m taking July 21 and July 28 figures. The July 17 data is provided as another reference point.

TONY BLAIR – Bad Week
(July 17: Good Job 26: Bad Job 59: Don’t Know 13)
July 21: Good Job 26: Bad Job 60: Don’t Know 14
July 24: Good Job 25: Bad Job 60: Don’t Know 13
July 25: Good Job 24: Bad Job 60: Don’t Know 13
July 26: Good Job 24: Bad Job 60: Don’t Know 13
July 28: Good Job 23: Bad Job 62: Don’t Know 13

GORDON BROWN – Almost no change
(July 17: Good Job 40: Bad Job 41: Don’t Know 19)
July 21: Good Job 38: Bad Job 41: Don’t Know 20
July 24: Good Job 38: Bad Job 41: Don’t Know 21
July 25: Good Job 38: Bad Job 41: Don’t Know 22
July 26: Good Job 38: Bad Job 40: Don’t Know 22
July 28: Good Job 38: Bad Job 41: Don’t Know 21

DAVID CAMERON – Good Week
(July 17: Good Job 40: Bad Job 27: Don’t Know 33)
July 21: Good Job 39: Bad Job 27: Don’t Know 34
July 24: Good Job 39: Bad Job 26: Don’t Know 35
July 25: Good Job 40: Bad Job 26: Don’t Know 34
July 26: Good Job 39: Bad Job 27: Don’t Know 34
July 28: Good Job 41: Bad Job 26: Don’t Know 33

MING CAMPBELL – Bad Week
(July 17: Good Job 19: Bad Job 34: Don’t Know 47)
July 21: Good Job 17: Bad Job 36: Don’t Know 47
July 24: Good Job 17: Bad Job 36: Don’t Know 47
July 25: Good Job 17: Bad Job 36: Don’t Know 47
July 26: Good Job 17: Bad Job 37: Don’t Know 46
July 28: Good Job 17: Bad Job 38: Don’t Know 45

I will be experimenting with ways of presenting the data in coming weeks and your views are welcome. A big thank you to YouGov’s Stephan Shakespeare and Anthony Wells for making this happen.

Mike Smithson