..and why are men unmoved by Cameron?

From the full dataset, now available, from last week’s ICM poll for Newsnight it’s clear that the leadership ratings presented on the programme might have given a misleading impression.

A chart was shown indicating that those interviewed rated Cameron at 41, Brown at 37: and Campbell at 24 when asked whether the three had the qualities needed to be Prime Minister. This prompted discussion here because the shares added up to 102%.

Now from the full data it’s clear that the interviewees were never asked to rate each of the three against each other. What happened was that there were separate questions for each of them and it was entirely possible for somebody to say that Brown, Cameron and Campbell all had the qualities.

Gordon Brown’s figures were 37% saying he had the qualities but 57% saying he hadn’t – a deficit of 20%.
David Cameron had 41% saying he had the qualities against 50% saying he hadn’t – a deficit of 9%.
Ming Campbell had 24% saying yes to 64% saying no – a deficit of 40%.

For comparison purposes Newsnight should have shown the different deficit figures not just the proportion of those saying yes in each case.

Tucked away in the details the poll was further evidence of the huge gender gap in British politics. Men are almost unmoved by Cameron but are more likely to look favourably on Brown. With women it’s the other way round.

Amongst men the net figures were: ; Brown -14%: Cameron -16% – the Chancellor just two points behind the Tory leader.

Amongst the women in the survey it was Brown -25%: Cameron -2% – the Chancellor 23% behind

This is a massive gap and reinforces similar gender data from other surveys.

COMMENTS:- For some reason the comments feature and this article clash. Please could you use the thread above which does work.

Mike Smithson