[Updated 0730]

“Nearly one in four Labour supporters want their party to lose”

The Observer carries reports this morning of a new Mori poll that shows that amongst those certain to vote – the pollster’s normal way of presenting its headline figures – the Tories had a 7% lead.

The online version carries only a few details but those forking out £1.60 for the print edition edition get little extra information for their cash. Although there are fancy colour graphics on Cameron – Brown the Observer does not appear to mention the actual vote shares. It’s like saying that England won by two goals without giving the score.

The 7% compares with the 10 point Tory lead the pollster recorded from a survey at the end of May. The paper does not commission monthly polls but when it does carry out surveys it usually uses Mori whose monthly poll features in a range of publications.

On who has “the common touch” those interviewed rated Blair 27-62; Brown 37-45; and Cameron on 41-31. So the Eton-educated leader came out best.

An interesting finding is that 23 per cent of those saying they would vote Labour agreed with the statement “that the Labour party should be kicked out of power to give it a period out of office to rethink what they stand for and what their vision is for the future of the country”

Although the Observer is making this aspect their main point the question sounds like a leading one with an expectation that interviewees would answer yes. Mori, as I repeatedly state, does not use past voting weighting to ensure that it has a politically representative sample.

The Observer also carries details of a survey by Opinion Leader Research in a separate poll of what are described as “opinion formers’ from the worlds of business, the media and politics”. How they determine who to talk to is not clear and there are few details available. This shows that a narrow majority now expect either a Tory victory or a hung Parliament at the next election, although 45 per cent still believed Labour would win.

This finding is almost exactly in line with the latest General Election betting prices.

Mike Smithson