Highest % supporting and lowest % opposing during this Parliamentary term.

Would the British public support or oppose the UK Government calling a General Election in the next 6 months? (3 September)

Support: 63% (+7)
Oppose: 11% (-2)

Changes +/- 27 August pic.twitter.com/KJD02GPwQS

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) September 9, 2023

I fear they’re going to be disappointed

We are now barely 15 months from the maximum time that this parliament can last and I think we’re going to see a lot more polling questions like the above on whether people want an early vote.

The only problem with this is that I cannot see Sunak wanting to go to the country early when he’s not assured of a victory. It might be that if the polling changed and the Tories found themselves in lead again then it will be something different.

The general reason why Prime Ministers choose to go to the Country on a particular date is that they believe they will win and that doesn’t applies in the current situation.

It is reckoned that for the Tories to be certain of a majority they need an overall GP national vote share lead of about 3%. Labour needs a margin of about 7%.

Mike Smithson