Could today be the day Sunak looses 3 by-elections?
Somerton, Selby and Uxbridge are the first Westminster by-election defences that Sunak has had to face since becoming leader and PM nine months ago. The other by-elections to be held have been in safe LAB seats.
That the Tories are in for a tough night is almost priced and if by any chance the party managed to retain one of the three seats that would surely underpin the leader’s position right through to the general election. This must take place before mid-January 2025.
I believe that Sunak’s tough policy decisions on asylum are not the great vote winners that he thinks it is and “stopping the boats” is not such a big deal electorally.
I’ve had almost no bets on today’s elections because I can’t see any value though I do have a small wager on the Tories managing to hold one of the three.