The election that shaped modern polling

The biggest election shock certainly since I started taking an interest in politics was in 1992 when against all the odds John Majors tories managed to hang on to a majority

Lots of reasons were put forward at the time about why the pollsters got it so wrong and it was this election that led to a discussion of the “Shy Tory” syndrome. Those backing Major’s party were said to be reluctant to admit it to pollsters. At the time all the surveys were either face-to-face or on the phone,

This was the only general election when I was a candidate and I feel very close to what was happening during that campaign and the outcome did not come as a surprise.

A few days before the election there was Kinnock’s famous rally in Sheffield which gave the impression of being a victory celebration.

I have a very strong recall of canvassing on the Tuesday before the vote when the mood on the doorstep was totally different. Voters were having second thoughts on Kinnock and support was ebbing away.

This happened too late to be picked up the polls. Since then some pollsters have endeavoured to ensure that their final poll is on the evening before.

Mike Smithson